Abstract:

A consensus-based decentralized reliability prediction method based on particle filtering is proposed for a nonlinear dynamic system with hidden degradation process.The degradation process is hidden means that the degradation cannot be measured directly.In this method，the original system is divided into several interconnected subsystems with overlapping decompositions，and then using the particle filtering algorithm at each subsystem，the states and parameters of the original system are estimated by each subsystem with the information of local measurements and the communications between subsystems，subsequently reliability of original system can also be predicted.Simultaneously，the method makes consensus-based estimation and prediction results for all subsystems with consensus strategy.Finally，from simulation experiments of a five-tank vessels model the degradation of system reliability can be predicted well，as well as the estimation and prediction results of all subsystems can be consensus.