Abstract:

The accuracy of grey Verhulst model greatly depends on background value and model structure parameter. In this paper, an improved-grey Verhulst model is proposed.Firstly, the cause of grey Verhulst model’s inaccuracy is analyzed.Secondly, the background value is rebuilt by using original data sequence.Thirdly, model structure parameter is obtained by optimization based on the principle about information overlap of grey system.Finally, the improved-grey Verhulst modeling is applied for building the model of national production of crude oil and results show its effectiveness.