基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估

doi:10.11949/j.issn.0438-1157.20151908

化工学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 67 ›› Issue (7): 3084-3090.DOI: 10.11949/j.issn.0438-1157.20151908

基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估

赵金龙, 黄弘, 李聪, 王建军

清华大学工物系/公共安全研究院, 北京 100084

收稿日期:2015-12-25 修回日期:2016-02-24 出版日期:2016-07-05 发布日期:2016-07-05
通讯作者: 黄弘
基金资助:
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目（2015BAK12B01）；化学品安全控制国家重点实验室开放课题（10010104-15-ZC0613-0107）。

Quantitative risk assessment in storage tank areas based on event-chains

ZHAO Jinlong, HUANG Hong, LI Cong, WANG Jianjun

Institute of Physical Engineering/Institute of Public Safety Research, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2015-12-25 Revised:2016-02-24 Online:2016-07-05 Published:2016-07-05
Supported by:
supported by the National Key Technology Research and Development Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (2015BAK12B01) and the State Key Laboratory of Safety and Control for Chemicals(10010104-15-ZC0613-0107).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

罐区储罐相对集中，发生事故后容易产生连锁效应，引发灾害性后果。本文根据储罐事故的发生发展规律，将事件链效应引入罐区定量风险评估中，建立了基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估方法。该方法以罐区中实际可能发生的事故场景作为风险计算依据，定量计算了罐区个人风险和社会风险。同时，利用个人风险判定准则，对事故场景数目进行了有效的筛选，避免冗长、复杂的计算。最后，以某罐区雷击事件链为例，探讨了事件链效应对罐区风险结果的影响。得出：在考虑事件链的条件下，罐区风险明显增加，需要规划改善的区域相应扩大。因此，对于大型罐区风险评估与规划，考虑事件链效应是十分必要的。

关键词: 储罐区, 事件链效应, 定量风险评估, 个人风险, 社会风险

Abstract:

Large storage tank areas are easily involved into severe accidents because of event-chains. According to the accidental escalation's law of tank accidents, the quantitative risk assessment method based on event-chains is developed. In the method, the individual risk (IR) and societal risk (SR) are calculated based on the practical accident scenarios that may occur because of event-chains. Moreover, the principals of individual risk are introduced to determine the effective scenarios, and thus many practical scenarios will be cut down. In the paper, the lightning event chain of tank areas is taken as an example. From the result, it can conclude that some common scenarios that have obvious effects are neglected and the calculated results are conservative by using the traditional method. Moreover, the planning areas enlarge obviously as the event chains are considered. Therefore, it is essential to consider the event chain especially for big tank areas.

Key words: tank areas, event-chain, quantitative risk assessment, individual risk, societal risk

中图分类号:

赵金龙, 黄弘, 李聪, 王建军. 基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估[J]. 化工学报, 2016, 67(7): 3084-3090.

ZHAO Jinlong, HUANG Hong, LI Cong, WANG Jianjun. Quantitative risk assessment in storage tank areas based on event-chains[J]. CIESC Journal, 2016, 67(7): 3084-3090.

参考文献 23

[1]	吴宗之, 许铭. 化工园区土地利用安全规划优化方法[J]. 化工学报, 2011, 62(1):125-131. WU Z Z, XU M. Optimization method of land-use safety planning for chemical industry park [J]. CIESC Journal, 2011, 62(1): 125-131.
[2]	国家环保总局. 环保总局公布全国化工石化建设项目环境风险排查结果[R]. 北京:国家环保总局, 2006. State Environmental Protection Administration. The results of the investigation to environmental risk of petrochemical and chemical construction projects in Chin [R]. Beijing: SEPA, 2006.
[3]	项开来, 沈汝发, 王成. 福建漳州古雷石化大火环境未现异常[N]. http://www.fj.xinhuanet.com/xhs/2015-04/111114936832 .htm. XIANG K L, SHEN R F, WANG C. The environmental condition of Zhangzhou Gulei did not appear abnormal under the petrochemical fires [N]. http://www.fj.xinhuanet.com/xhs/2015-04/111114936832. htm.
[4]	季学伟, 翁文国, 赵前胜. 突发事件链的定量风险分析方法[J]. 清华大学学报(自然科学版), 2009, (11): 1749-1752. JI X W, WENG W G, ZHAO Q S. Quantitative disaster chain risk analysis[J]. Journal of Tsinghua University(Natural Science Edition), 2009, (11): 1749-1752.
[5]	KHAN F I, ABBASI S A. An assessment of the likelihood of occurrence, and the damage potential of domino effect (chain of accidents) in a typical cluster of industries[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2001, 14(4): 283-306.
[6]	COZZANI V, GUBINELLI G, ANTONIONI G, et al. The assessment of risk caused by domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis[J]. Journal of hazardous Materials, 2005, 127(1): 14-30.
[7]	马科伟, 朱建新, 包士毅. 基于多米诺效应的化工园区定量风险评估方法研究[J]. 浙江工业大学学报, 2011, 39(1): 29-33. MA K W, ZHU J X, BAO S Y. Research on quantitative risk assessment in chemical park based on domino effect model [J]. Journal of Zhejiang University of Technology, 2011, 39(1): 29-33.
[8]	ABDOLHAMIDZADEH B, ABBASI T, RASHTCHIAN D, et al. Domino effect in process-industry accidents-an inventory of past events and identification of some patterns[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2011, 24(5): 575-593.
[9]	CHANG J I, LIN C C. A study of storage tank accidents[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2006, 19(1): 51-59.
[10]	SALZANO E, IERVOLINO I, FABBROCINO G. Seismic risk of atmospheric storage tanks in the framework of quantitative risk analysis[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2003, 16(5): 403-409.
[11]	FABBROCINO G, IERVOLINO I, ORLANDO F, et al. Quantitative risk analysis of oil storage facilities in seismic areas[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005, 123(1): 61-69.
[12]	NECCI A, ANTONIONI G, COZZANI V, et al. A model for process equipment damage probability assessment due to lightning[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2013, 115: 91-99.
[13]	LANDUCCI G, ANTONIONI G, TUGNOLI A, et al. Release of hazardous substances in flood events: damage model for atmospheric storage tanks[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2012, 106: 200-216.
[14]	DINENNO P J. SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering[M]. New York: John Wiley & Sons Inc., 2008.
[15]	VAN DEN BOSCH C, WETERINGS R. Methods for the calculation of physical effects: due to releases of hazardous materials (liquids and gases)[M]. The Hague, 1997.
[16]	GUBINELLI G, ZANELLI S, COZZANI V. A simplified model for the assessment of the impact probability of fragments [J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2004, 116(3): 175-187.
[17]	CAMPEDEL M, COZZANI V, GARCIA-AGREDA A, et al. Extending the quantitative assessment of industrial risks to earthquake effects [J]. Risk Analysis, 2008, 28(5): 1231-1246.
[18]	ANTONIONI G, SPADONI G, COZZANI V. Application of domino effect quantitative risk assessment to an extended industrial area [J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2009, 22(5): 614-624.
[19]	CHRISTOU M D, AMENDOLA A, SMEDER M. The control of major accident hazards: the land-use planning issue [J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 1999, 65(1): 151-178.
[20]	LEES F. Lees' Loss Prevention in the Process Industries: Hazard Identification, Assessment and Control [M]. Butterworth-Heinemann, 2012.
[21]	JONKMAN S N, VAN GELDER P, VRIJLING J K. An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2003, 99(1): 1-30.
[22]	International Electrotechnical Commission. Protection against Lighting-Part 2: Risk Management: IEC62305-2 [S]. London: European Standards, 2006.
[23]	中华人民共和国电力工业部. 流电气装置的过电压保护和绝缘配合: DL/T 620-1997 [S]. 北京: 中国标准出版社, 1997. Electric Power Industry Ministry of the People's Republic of China. Overvoltage protection and insulation coordination for AC electrical installations: DL/T 620-1997 [S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China, 1997.

基于事件链的罐区定量风险评估

Quantitative risk assessment in storage tank areas based on event-chains

PDF (PC)

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献 23

相关文章 0

编辑推荐

Metrics

本文评价