Abstract:

Based on the predicted information about remaining useful life, the joint decision on replacement time and spare ordering time for a single-unit system subject to condition monitoring is considered. First, the distribution function of the remaining useful life is predicted with real-time condition monitoring information; then, the sequential and joint optimization models are established based on the predicted information; finally, the effects of the joint decision and the sequential decision are compared by using the real bearing accelerated life test. The results illustrate that the joint decision is better, and it can avoid the problem under the sequential decision that decision results cannot be implemented.

Key words: predictive maintenance, remaining useful life, joint decision, sequential decision, spare ordering

摘要：

针对带有状态监测的单部件系统, 基于剩余使用寿命预测信息, 考虑了替换时间和备件订购时间的联合决策。首先, 利用实时状态监测信息对剩余使用寿命分布函数进行预测;然后, 分别建立了该预测信息下的序贯优化模型和联合优化模型;最后, 进行了实验研究, 利用实际的轴承加速寿命实验对序贯决策和联合决策的效果进行比较。结果表明, 联合决策比序贯决策要好, 同时还避免了序贯决策中决策结果无法实施的问题。

关键词: 预测维修, 剩余使用寿命, 联合决策, 序贯决策, 备件订购