Abstract: There is uncertainty in kinetic modeling by the traditional methods. In this paper, the uncertainty of the traditional methods is examined by using numerical analysis, sensitivety analysis of the parameters and operating variables, as well as experimental investigation of a reacting system. The physical and mathematical causes of the uncertainty are discussed. Regression Along Process Route Approach (RAPRA) is proposed. Test examples show that RAPRA models give more satisfactory simulation results than those developed by the traditional methods.

摘要： 本文通过数值分析、参数灵敏性分析和实验研究,考察了动力学模型及参数、反应器操作方式和操作条件等因素对模拟结果的影响,认为传统研究方法建立动力学模型具有不确定性.根据反应器设计、模拟要求,提出了动力学建模方法——沿程法,该法在模拟反应器行为时可靠性优于传统法.