Abstract:

The fragments generated from exploded process equipments would cause domino effect after impacting with the other neighboring equipments.An impact probability model based on the Monte Carlo method is derived to analyze the randomicity of the projection distance and direction of the fragments.The difference from the previous models is that the size of bursting vessel is not ignored, that means the initial projection height and the projection horizontal displacement of the fragments are not considered as zero.The comparison of results show that the impact probabilities would be larger if the size of bursting vessel is considered.The influence on the impact probability is higher than 10% when the distance of target is lower than 7 times of the diameter of bursting spherical tank.So the influence of size of bursting spherical tank on impact probability cannot be ignored.

Key words:

击中概率, 多米诺效应, Monte Carlo法, 爆炸, 碎片

摘要：

化工储罐爆炸产生碎片的抛射距离和抛射方位具有很大的随机性，一旦击中相邻罐体容易引发多米诺效应。在前人建立的碎片对相邻罐体的击中概率模型中，都忽略了爆炸储罐本身的尺寸，即假定碎片初始抛射高度和抛射水平位移为零。本文以球罐为研究对象，应用Monte Carlo法，计算了考虑爆炸球罐尺寸时抛射碎片对相邻罐体的击中概率。与忽略爆炸球罐尺寸的模型对比表明，击中概率整体偏高。在爆炸球罐自身直径的7倍距离范围内，爆炸球罐本身的尺寸对击中概率的影响可超过10%，不能被忽略。

关键词:

击中概率, 多米诺效应, Monte Carlo法, 爆炸, 碎片