Abstract:

LNG(liquefied natural gas)is natural gas(NG)which has been converted into liquid for storage and transport.Being a clean combustion gas,NG is widely used from power generation to domestic gas stove.This makes NG an essential for any country especially powerhouses like China which has growing energy needs.Interruption of natural gas to these users will have significant negative economic and social impact. Any interruption to this supply chain is often a result of an unplanned or planned maintenance activity on an equipment.Reliability,availability and maintainability(RAM)analysis can help to quantify the impact of these interruptions(the ability to supply gas)in terms of lost production over time. RAM analysis is a production-performance technique which can take into account all failure and repair rates of each of the equipment that compose a system along with its physical configuration in order to estimate the system's behavior over a given operational time.RAM analysis is typically undertaken using simulation software based on predictive/deterministic algorithms(such as Monte Carlo method)in order to obtain the distribution of probable outcomes. The common outputs from a RAM analysis are overall performance of the system and the number of predicted equipment failures for all equipments in the system with respect to operational time. RAM analysis is a technique which supports the production-assurance process recommended in ISO 20815/API 17N. This paper presents a RAM analysis performed on an LNG storage terminal during detailed engineering design.The LNG storage terminal is located in Southern China.The RAM analysis uses ReliaSuite^,a Monte Carlo method based simulation software.

Key words: system engineering, model, LNG supply chain, LNG receiving terminal, CBA cost benefit analysis

摘要：

LNG设施通常包括天然气液化、LNG储运及运输等。在中国天然气供应链对经济民生影响重大。天然气供应链或供应系统中关键设备的非计划及计划性维修导致的天然气供应中断,都可能造成巨大的经济损失。本项目应用可靠性、可用性及可维修性(RAM)分析方法对于液化天然气储备库及附属设施的可靠性指标进行评估,定量分析LNG供应链中关键设备的失效及维修时间对于整个供应链可靠性指标的影响。RAM分析可以用来预测在指定的运行周期内整个LNG供应链的运行绩效。RAM分析辨识关键设备的失效模式,确定失效数据,并采取Monte Carlo的模拟计算,获得LNG供应链或系统中,关键设备失效对于可靠性指标影响。本文通过国内某LNG储备库项目的RAM分析,应用以Monte Carlo模拟为基础的系统可靠性分析软件ReliaSuite^®,评估LNG储备库系统设计能否满足可靠性指标。并且对LNG储运设施的卸料臂进行了失效模式及关键性影响分析(FMECA)。通过对LNG储备库各子系统对于项目整体可靠性的贡献进行敏感性分析,找到影响项目整体可靠性的瓶颈及解决方案。

关键词: 系统工程, 模型, LNG供应链, LNG接收站, 成本效益分析