基于热响应机理的罐区池火灾动态多米诺效应评估方法

doi:10.11949/0438-1157.20241044

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

化工园区内存有大量危化品并具有复杂的工艺装置，一旦发生火灾爆炸事故，极易影响邻近单元而引发多米诺效应，导致更为严重的后果。为了探究火灾多米诺效应的动态演变过程以及协同效应对多米诺事故升级的影响，对多米诺效应进行定量评估，基于储罐的热响应机理，综合考量热辐射影响下的罐体材料失效及罐内压力上升的双向作用，并融合多重火灾热辐射的时空演变和协同效应等因素，构建了储罐的失效时间与升级概率的瞬态响应模型。以某储罐区为研究对象进行仿真，设定初始事故并对场景内多米诺效应进行动态建模分析。结果表明，多重火灾之间的协同效应会提高储罐温度上升速率，从而显著缩短储罐的失效时间，加快多米诺效应升级；研究建立的动态多米诺效应模型能够预测储罐的失效时间和概率，进而确定多米诺效应的升级路径，同时依据结果分析得出针对性的断链策略阻断事故传播，为化工园区内的安全防护分配和应急措施制订提供理论依据。

关键词: 罐区, 多米诺效应, 瞬态响应, 动态建模, 断链策略, 安全

Abstract:

In chemical parks with many hazardous chemicals and complex process units, once a fire or explosion accident occurs, it is easy to affect the neighboring units, thus triggering the domino effect and causing more serious consequences. To explore the dynamic evolution of the fire domino ^{effect and the synergistic effect on the domino accident escalation, a quantitative assessment of the domino effect is conducted. Based on the thermal response mechanism of the storage tank and considering the dual effects of material failure due to thermal radiation and the increase in internal pressure, a transient response model of time to failure and escalation probability of the tank is developed by integrating factors such as temporal-spatial evolution and synergistic effects of multiple fires. A certain tank area was simulated as the research object, the initial accident was set, and the domino effect in the scene was dynamically modeled and analyzed. The results show that the synergistic effect between multiple fires will increase the rate of temperature rise of the storage tanks and significantly reduce the failure time of the tanks, which will accelerate the upgrading of the domino effect. The dynamic domino effect model established in the research can predict the failure time and the probability of the storage tanks, and then determine the upgrading path of the domino effect, and at the same time, analyze the targeted chain-breaking strategy to block the propagation of the accident according to the results, so as to provide a theoretical basis for the allocation of safety protection and the formulation of emergency measures in the chemical park.}

Key words: tank farm, domino effect, transient response, dynamic modeling, chain-breaking strategy, safety

中图分类号:

X 937

张新梅, 张傲, 邱德华, 刘晓爽, 陈晨. 基于热响应机理的罐区池火灾动态多米诺效应评估方法[J]. 化工学报, 2025, 76(4): 1885-1897.

Xinmei ZHANG, Ao ZHANG, Dehua QIU, Xiaoshuang LIU, Chen CHEN. Dynamic domino effect assessment method based on thermal response mechanism of pool fire in tank farm[J]. CIESC Journal, 2025, 76(4): 1885-1897.

图/表 15

图1 火灾多米诺效应动态演变

Fig.1 The dynamic evolution of the fire domino effect

图2 火灾的协同效应

Fig.2 The synergistic effect of fire

图3 多米诺情景的时空切片

Fig.3 The temporal-spatial slice of domino scenario

图4 储罐热响应机理

Fig.4 Thermal response mechanism of tank

图5 动态多米诺效应评估流程图

Fig.5 Flow chart of dynamic domino effect assessment

图6 罐区布局

Fig.6 Layout of tank farm

表1 罐区内储罐参数

Table 1 Parameters of tanks in tank farms

储罐	储存物质	直径/m	高度/m	体积/m³	物质质量/t
T1	苯	10	6.5	500	350
T2	苯	7	5.5	200	120
T3	丙酮	10	6.5	500	300
T4	丙酮	7	5.5	200	140
T4	丙酮	7	5.5	200	15

表2 热辐射强度

Table 2 Thermal radiation intensity

储罐	热辐射强度/(kW/m²)
储罐	T1	T2	T3	T4	T5
T1	—	20.3	20.3	12.3	6.7
T2	20.3	—	12.3	20.3	5.4
T3	15.6	9.0	—	15.6	15.6
T4	9.0	15.6	15.6	—	9.0
T5	4.7	3.8	15.6	9.0	—

图7 各储罐的剩余失效时间变化

Fig.7 Variation of residual time to failure of each tank

表3 储罐实际失效时间

Table 3 Actual time to failure of tanks

储罐	失效时间/s
T3	295
T2	604
T4	671
T5	727

表4 随时间更新的热辐射值

Table 4 Thermal radiation intensity updated over time

时间	热辐射强度/(kW/m²)
时间	T3	T2	T4	T5
0~294 s	20.3	20.3	12.3	6.7
295~603 s	—	35.9	27.9	22.3
604~670 s	—	—	48.2	27.7
671~726 s	—	—	—	36.7

图8 案例事故的时空切片

Fig.8 The temporal-spatial slice of case study

图9 多米诺效应断链策略

Fig.9 Chain-breaking strategy of domino effect

图10 各储罐的动态升级概率

Fig.10 Dynamic escalation probability of each tank

图11 各储罐升级概率变化状况

Fig.11 Changes of escalation probability of each tank

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