一种分步约简的炼油生产敏感变量选择方法

doi:10.11949/0438-1157.20191499

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

变量筛选是现代工业过程产品质量预测研究中的热点问题之一。过滤式变量选择方法因其计算速度快且不易造成过拟合得到了广泛应用，但其存在容易忽略变量相关性且不能准确反映工况信息的问题，在高维数据维度灾难问题日渐突出的当今不再适用。针对这一问题，提出一种分步约简的敏感变量选择方法。该方法在明确敏感变量和关键敏感变量的基础上，根据变量对工况的描述能力和辅助变量与主导变量的净相关性定义了敏感性指标，实现敏感变量的初选；接着，构建加权余弦马田系统以解决变量冗余性问题，实现敏感变量的精选。所提方法应用于加氢裂化产品质量预测，实际工业应用结果表明，该方法不仅可以提高模型的预测精度，而且可以有效地降低模型复杂性。

关键词: 敏感性指标, 变量选择, 预测, 系统工程, 石油

Abstract:

Variable selection has always been a hotspot in product quality prediction of modern industrial production. Due to the fast calculation speed and do not easily cause overfitting, filter methods have been widely used.However, because the correlation of variables is easily ignored and no information of working condition reflected in the filter methods,it is no longer suitable for solving the disaster problems of high-dimensional data. To cope with these problems, a fractional step reduction method for sensitive variable selection is proposed in the paper. First, two concepts of sensitive variables (SV) and key sensitive variables (KSV) are first identified. Then, a sensitivity index (SI) is developed to select the sensitive variables preliminarily. After that, a weighted cosine Mahalanobis-Taguchi system (WCMTS) is proposed to precisely select the key sensitive variables. Finally, the proposed method is applied to an industry hydrocracking process. Practical industrial application results show that the method can not only improve the prediction accuracy of the model, but also effectively reduce the complexity of the model.

Key words: sensitivity index, variable selection, prediction, systems engineering, petroleum

中图分类号:

TP 274

李灵, 王雅琳, 孙备. 一种分步约简的炼油生产敏感变量选择方法[J]. 化工学报, 2020, 71(5): 2173-2181.

Ling LI, Yalin WANG, Bei SUN. Fractional step reduction method for sensitive variable selection of refining processes[J]. CIESC Journal, 2020, 71(5): 2173-2181.

图/表 14

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序号	过程参数	偏相关系数	离散程度	敏感性指数
1	原料油总流量	0.5784	0.1211	0.0700
2	反应加热炉总入口温度	0.4035	0.0408	0.0165
…	…	…	…	…
11	精制反应器三床层底部温度	0.4132	0.2690	0.1112
12	精制反应器塔底温度指示	0.2873	0.0107	0.0031
13	精制反应器压差	0.2312	0.0258	0.0060
…	…	…	…	…
21	冷低压分离器冷低分油流量	0.4756	0.1239	0.0589
22	新氢至加裂流量	0.4829	1.5620	0.7543
23	脱硫化氢汽提塔塔顶回流量	0.0931	0.0834	0.0078
…	…	…	…	…
30	主分馏塔中段抽出量	0.4561	0.0365	0.0166
31	主分馏塔中段返回温度	0.2578	0.0171	0.0044
…	…	…	…	…
37	柴油汽提塔塔顶温度	0.3006	0.0311	0.0093
38	柴油汽提塔底部温度	0.1722	0.0205	0.0035

序号	过程参数	偏相关系数	离散程度	敏感性指数
1	原料油总流量	0.5784	0.1211	0.0700
2	反应加热炉总入口温度	0.4035	0.0408	0.0165
…	…	…	…	…
11	精制反应器三床层底部温度	0.4132	0.2690	0.1112
12	精制反应器塔底温度指示	0.2873	0.0107	0.0031
13	精制反应器压差	0.2312	0.0258	0.0060
…	…	…	…	…
21	冷低压分离器冷低分油流量	0.4756	0.1239	0.0589
22	新氢至加裂流量	0.4829	1.5620	0.7543
23	脱硫化氢汽提塔塔顶回流量	0.0931	0.0834	0.0078
…	…	…	…	…
30	主分馏塔中段抽出量	0.4561	0.0365	0.0166
31	主分馏塔中段返回温度	0.2578	0.0171	0.0044
…	…	…	…	…
37	柴油汽提塔塔顶温度	0.3006	0.0311	0.0093
38	柴油汽提塔底部温度	0.1722	0.0205	0.0035

样本序号	马氏距离	余弦相似度	余弦马氏距离
1	1.2643	0.4000	1.1260
2	0.5608	0.3437	0.5261
3	0.8299	0.3559	0.7540
4	1.0096	0.4000	0.9121
…	…	…	…
29	1.0354	0.3401	0.9241
30	1.3146	0.3460	1.1597
31	0.9665	0.4000	0.8759
32	1.2449	0.4000	1.1097

样本序号	马氏距离	余弦相似度	余弦马氏距离
1	1.2643	0.4000	1.1260
2	0.5608	0.3437	0.5261
3	0.8299	0.3559	0.7540
4	1.0096	0.4000	0.9121
…	…	…	…
29	1.0354	0.3401	0.9241
30	1.3146	0.3460	1.1597
31	0.9665	0.4000	0.8759
32	1.2449	0.4000	1.1097

样本序号	马氏距离	余弦相似度	余弦马氏距离
1	4.919	0.3437	4.1870
2	276.954	0.3437	232.6964
3	1.6571	5.3472	2.2475
4	227.402	0.3460	191.0370
5	49.435	0.4000	41.5894
6	572.315	0.4000	480.8086
7	562.881	0.4000	472.8840
8	167.429	0.3401	140.6948
9	14.732	0.3401	12.4293
10	335.268	0.4000	281.6891
11	134.409	0.3390	112.9578
12	551.747	0.4000	463.5315