关键词: 系统工程, 模型, LNG供应链, LNG接收站, 成本效益分析

Abstract:

LNG(liquefied natural gas)is natural gas(NG)which has been converted into liquid for storage and transport.Being a clean combustion gas,NG is widely used from power generation to domestic gas stove.This makes NG an essential for any country especially powerhouses like China which has growing energy needs.Interruption of natural gas to these users will have significant negative economic and social impact. Any interruption to this supply chain is often a result of an unplanned or planned maintenance activity on an equipment.Reliability,availability and maintainability(RAM)analysis can help to quantify the impact of these interruptions(the ability to supply gas)in terms of lost production over time. RAM analysis is a production-performance technique which can take into account all failure and repair rates of each of the equipment that compose a system along with its physical configuration in order to estimate the system's behavior over a given operational time.RAM analysis is typically undertaken using simulation software based on predictive/deterministic algorithms(such as Monte Carlo method)in order to obtain the distribution of probable outcomes. The common outputs from a RAM analysis are overall performance of the system and the number of predicted equipment failures for all equipments in the system with respect to operational time. RAM analysis is a technique which supports the production-assurance process recommended in ISO 20815/API 17N. This paper presents a RAM analysis performed on an LNG storage terminal during detailed engineering design.The LNG storage terminal is located in Southern China.The RAM analysis uses ReliaSuite^,a Monte Carlo method based simulation software.

Key words: system engineering, model, LNG supply chain, LNG receiving terminal, CBA cost benefit analysis