Abstract: The constraint of carbon emission is promoting the third transition of the world primary energy constitution.Fossil energy would gradually decrease after achieving peak consumption, and nuclear and renewable energy would become the main components.Science and technology innovation will push forward the revolution of terminal utilizing model from primary energy, and result in significant change of petrochemical industry up to 2030.Transportation fuel and chemical raw material will shift from solely oil towards a new,multi-source pattern:oil, coal (electricity) and biomass.This situation calls for dealing with the relationship among macroscopic planning, energy saving and carbon emission reduction, providing great potential, opportunity and challenge for energy system optimization.2012—2030 is the key transition period.Changing traditional idea and thinking, enlarging time and space sight, and emphasizing science and technology progress will guarantee fast development of China's organic chemical industry in the low carbon era.

Key words: low carbon era, petrochemical industry, resources, energy, transition

摘要： 碳排放约束使世界一次能源构成发生第三次大转型,石油和煤炭消耗达到顶峰后逐渐减少,核能和可再生能源逐渐成为主体;天然气则是向低碳能源过渡历史时期最重要的化石能源;科技创新将推动从一次能源到终端利用的模式和技术不断变革,并导致石油化工产业资源与能源的格局在未来20年发生重大变化。交通运输燃料和化学品将从完全依赖石油的局面转向石油、煤(电)、生物质并存的新格局。从而要求处理好有机化工产业宏观规划布局与节能减排和能量系统优化的关系,提供了能量系统在时间和空间多个维度上优化的机遇和挑战,并催生了新的内涵和潜力。2012—2030年期间是大转型的关键过渡时期,改变传统观念和思维定势,拓宽时间和空间的视野,依靠科技创新,必能推进中国有机化工产业顺利转型、快速发展。

关键词: 低碳时代, 石油化工产业, 资源, 能源, 转型