非恒定故障率安全联锁系统执行机构的时变竞争失效研究

doi:10.11949/0438-1157.20240531

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

安全联锁系统（Safety interlock system， SIS）在防止化工装置发生危险事故方面发挥着重要作用，但由于复杂的工作环境，SIS执行机构不可避免的受到老化退化以及外界需求冲击的影响，造成传统可靠性模型中的恒定故障率假设不再适用，为此针对具有非恒定故障率的执行机构，基于失效模式以及失效机理，考虑退化过程的时变特性，引入退化速率加速因子、退化突增量系数以及时变硬失效阈值，提出了N取K结构（KooN）通用的退化、冲击相互依赖竞争失效模型DCFP-TVC（dependent competing failure processes considering time-varying characteristics），并将该模型应用于风力发电制氢氧纯度联锁回路，实例表明，相较恒定故障率模型、其他竞争失效模型，所提模型可有效解决非恒定故障率执行机构可靠性分析精度低的难点，且以重要退化参数进行灵敏度分析，说明其对可靠性、失效时间分布的影响效果，并提出调整验证测试间隔的建议，实现执行机构非周期检测的风险管控。

关键词: 安全联锁系统, 竞争失效, 过程控制, 蒙特卡罗模拟, 制氢

Abstract:

The safety interlock system (SIS) plays an important role in preventing hazardous accidents in chemical plants. Due to the complex working environment, SIS actuators are inevitably affected by aging degradation and external demand shocks, resulting in the assumption of constant failure rate in traditional reliability models no longer being applicable. To this end, based on failure modes and mechanisms, considering the time-varying characteristics of the degradation process, a universal dependent competing failure processes considering time varying characteristics (DCFP-TVC) for KooN structures was proposed by introducing degradation rate acceleration factor, degradation sudden increment coefficient, and time-varying hard failure threshold to achieve stochastic failure process modeling of non-constant failure rate actuators. The application of this model to the hydrogen oxygen purity interlocking circuit of wind power generation shows that compared to the constant failure rate model and other competing failure models, the proposed model can effectively solve the difficulties in reliability analysis of non-constant failure rate actuators. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted using important degradation parameters to demonstrate their impact on reliability and failure time distribution. Based on the DCFP-TVC model, suggestions were proposed to adjust the proof test interval to achieve risk control for non-periodic testing of the executing mechanism.

Key words: safety interlock system, competing failure, process control, Monte Carlo simulation, hydrogen production

中图分类号:

X937

孙冰颜, 王海清, 张玉涛, 汪肆杰. 非恒定故障率安全联锁系统执行机构的时变竞争失效研究[J]. 化工学报, DOI: 10.11949/0438-1157.20240531.

Bingyan SUN, Haiqing WANG, Yutao ZHANG, Sijie WANG. Research on time-varying competitive failure of safety interlock system actuators with non-constant failure rate[J]. CIESC Journal, DOI: 10.11949/0438-1157.20240531.

图/表 8

图1 考虑时变退化速率、退化突增量及冲击失效阈值的竞争失效过程

Fig.1 Dependent competing failure processes considering time-varying characteristics

图2 一般竞争失效模型与DCFP-TVC模型

Fig.2 General DCFPs model and DCFP-TVC model

图3 氧纯度联锁回路图

Fig.3 Oxygen purity interlock circuit

表1 DCPF-TVC竞争失效模型中涉及的参数值

Table 1 The parameter values involved in the DCFP-TVC

参数	数值	参数	数值	参数	数值
H	0.00125^[18]	a₁	0.40（假设）	β₀	~N（ $μ β 0, σ β 0 2$ ）^[18] $μ β 0$ =8.4823×10^-9； $σ β 0$ =6.0016×10^-10
λ_de	5×10^-5h^-1	a₂	-0.015（假设）	β₀
D₀	1.5G^[18]	a₃	0.05^[14]	W_j	~N（ $μ W, σ W 2$ ） $μ W$ =0.2； $σ W$ =0.015（假设）
$φ$	0^[18]	b₁	0.08（假设）	Y_j	~N（ $μ Y, σ Y 2$ ）^[18] $μ Y$ =1×10^-4； $σ Y$ =2×10^-5
α	300^[19]	b₂、b₃	0^[14]	τ	8760h

表1 DCPF-TVC竞争失效模型中涉及的参数值

Table 1 The parameter values involved in the DCFP-TVC

参数	数值	参数	数值	参数	数值
H	0.00125^[18]	a₁	0.40（假设）	β₀	~N（ $μ β 0, σ β 0 2$ ）^[18] $μ β 0$ =8.4823×10^-9； $σ β 0$ =6.0016×10^-10
λ_de	5×10^-5h^-1	a₂	-0.015（假设）	β₀
D₀	1.5G^[18]	a₃	0.05^[14]	W_j	~N（ $μ W, σ W 2$ ） $μ W$ =0.2； $σ W$ =0.015（假设）
$φ$	0^[18]	b₁	0.08（假设）	Y_j	~N（ $μ Y, σ Y 2$ ）^[18] $μ Y$ =1×10^-4； $σ Y$ =2×10^-5
α	300^[19]	b₂、b₃	0^[14]	τ	8760h

图4 各模型可靠性曲线对比

Fig.4 Comparison of reliability curves for various models

图5 PFDavg对比结果

Fig.5 Comparison of PFDavg between DCFP-TVC /NTVC

图6 退化参数对可靠性、失效时间分布的影响

Fig.6 The impact of degradation parameters on reliability

表2 不同a3 下的测试间隔更新结果

Table 2 Update results of test intervals under different a3

	第一测试间隔	第二测试间隔	第三测试间隔	第四测试间隔	第五测试间隔
a₃ =0.05	(0,3τ)	(3τ,6τ)	(6τ,7.15τ)	(7.15τ,7.28τ)	(7.28τ,7.38τ)
a₃ =0.50	(0,3τ)	(3τ,6τ)	(6τ,6.43τ)	(6.43τ,6.64τ)	(6.64τ,6.78τ)
a₃ =1.50	(0,3τ)	(3τ,5.05τ)	(5.05τ,5.36τ)	(5.36τ,5.55τ)	(5.55τ,5.72τ)
a₃ =2.50	(0,3τ)	(3τ,3.82τ)	(3.82τ,4.43τ)	(4.43τ,4.91τ)	(4.91τ,5.25τ)

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